by Jay Reynolds

This webpage will examine some of the purposes that people claim the contrails are for.

These claims will be examined by known facts and logical analysis to reveal the fallacies that exist. Some of the claims are combined by 'believers' who are unsure of a single idea, while some claimants adopt a single idea which they concentrate on and defend. In fact, much logical analysis exists within the various camps which, combined together, actually completes a refutation of the claim that contrails are 'chemtrails'.

First, one should be aware that none of these claims can be considered either a hypothesis or a theory, they all fall in the realm of speculation. Within the logical paradigm of science, a hypothesis based on an observation such as, "I see contrails, they must be X", can only be considered a hypothesis if some fact exists to support the hypothesis. Further, the status of a hypotheis can only be advanced to a theory after a body of facts exists sufficient to withstand logical analysis and rigorous testing to rule out false positives.

The 'chemtrail' idea appears tailor made to generate speculation and lead towards false positives since it is known beyond all doubt that normal contrails are seen and do in fact exist. People who lack critical thinking skills, factual information, who hold magical-thinking paradigms, or simply trust what they are told can easily adopt false ideas which many hold as intensive components of their belief systems.

Little discussed additional factors related to these beliefs are the emotional factors that can underlie them either consciously or unconsciously. Within conscious belief, people do not trust their government and actually fear it. Unfortunately, they choose to trust others outside of government often times without any proof or facts at all. Additionally, people do experience natural illness or weather disasters, and are seeking the cause which is sometimes unknown. On a subconscious level, there appears to be an innate and instinctual fear of something that moves over one's head, probably as a protection mechanism.

-Poisonous Substance in Fuel

This claim first came about with the advent in 1997 of the email message "Lines In the Sky Identified", written by Richard Finke and thoroughly discussed in a previous article. The substance, alleged to be a component of military JP-8 jet fuel, was Ethylene Dibromide, a pesticide. In my previous article, I also discussed the additive more recently used in this fuel, called +100. The fact that EDB breaks down at high temperature and immediately becomes a gas in the atmosphere makes it unsuitable for use in high altitude spraying. Since that time, the USAF has issued a press release categorically denying that EDB has ever been a component of jet fuel. One website alleges that EDB is used in combination with a biological agent Pseudomonas Flourescens. EDB is fatal to all forms of life and would render any bacterial agent inert. Additionally, due to it's relationship with ozone depletion, the level of bromine in our atmosphere as measured by satellite is available online and shows no anomaly. Thus, the premise that EDB is in military jet fuel is not logical, it has been publicly denied, and empirical evidence is available that shows no abnormal presence of EDB in the atmosphere.

-Biological Agents

Various claims have been made regarding biological agents being released by 'spraying' in the form of contrails. The only ones that specify any biological agents appear to be based on the work of William Thomas, whose piece "Sky Samples Analyzed" was previously discussed by myself in an article that found the organisms specified are all normal environmental biota, ubiquitous and cosmopolitan in soil, dust, and the air.

Significantly, Thomas, and all other contrail researchers, even after being notified by me that the Congressional Research Service was compiling a report on the contrails controversy, never submitted his alleged lab results and analysis to Congress. Thomas was quoted in the Santa Fe New Mexican, a newspaper in Santa Fe, NM, on 6/20/99 as saying, "My colleague and I will release the name of our lab and detailed lab results as soon as we find a publisher willing to pay us for many months of research - and reimburse those lab tests." Thoomas claims to be able to prove what he alleges, but only for personal gain, not the public's welfare.

Another claim made by Thomas, which has since been toned down because of it's implausibility, began during an interview on the Art Bell radio show. Thomas read a report from Joe Burton of Knoxville, TN, which claimed Burton had been diagnosed by a "Bioscan2010 whole body scan" with Rabies, Hepatitis, Epstein-Barr virus, V-2 Grippe virus, and had been exposed to several unusual chemicals as a result of 'chemtrails'. My research revealed that the Bioscan2010 was a health related scam operation which performs 'blood analysis' via mail order. Subsequently, Thomas has dropped all those claims except the "V-2 Grippe", which I can find no reference to anywhere, except that grippe is a foreign term for the flu.

From time to time, many anecdotal reports of illness come in, but absolutely none of these are supported by either medical diagnosis or epidemiological data. Virtually any illnesses, from meningitis to anthrax have been alleged to be caused by 'spraying', but have not been confirmed by any facts at all.

As discussed in my previous article, the idea that biological agents would be 'sprayed' at high altitudes is physically illogical due to dispertion and degradation. Thus, there is neither factual evidence of biological agent usage in contrails, nor is there a logical basis.

-Innoculation Agent

This claim has arisen based on reports that our government has increased it's readiness to deal with bioterrorism. Generally the allegation is that, due to an imminent event of bioterrorism, an areal mass-innoculation program is underway to protect the population against the threat.

Logically, any such program would require that the expected agent be identiifed in advance, with sufficient time to develop and administer the vaccine. An aggressor, when faced with such a prophylactic countermeasure would only have to switch agents, from anthrax to smallpox, for example. Furthermore, the fact that persistent contrails are seen over remote, nearly uninhabited areas, coastlines with wind blowing offshore, and mid-ocean locations also discredits this claim.

Factually, no evidence of any kind lends credence to the idea that a covert mass-vaccination program is underway.

-Behavioral Control Agent

The claim has been made, by Al Cuppett and others, that a substance has been developed which, after administration, can be activated by 'triggering' through either a second(binary) agent or an electrical or electromagnetic force. No proof or details of this substance, it's effects, or it's method of activation have been specified.

This claim is pure speculation, without any factual basis at all so far.

-Weather Modification

The claim has been made that contrails are a weather modification effort, ironically, one camp claims it is to cause drought, and another to cause rain. One camp claims it may be to cool off 'global warming', and another to prevent 'global cooling'. Almost all claimants appear to have no foundation in meteorology, and significantly, not one qualified meteorologist out of the thousands in the US has ever substantiated the idea whatsoever.

Weather modification programs are publicly funded and conducted in many western states with the intent of increasing precipitation. They are conducted through cloud 'seeding' with several materials which increase the amount of rainfall from clouds.
The prerequisite for successful rainfall enhancement is sufficient moisture availability in the air mass. Without this moisture, no rain can form, and no aircraft can possibly deliver moisture to the atmosphere in quantities to support rain.

The claim that cloudy skies and ensuing rainfall are caused by contrails is actually a case of inverse inference, whereby the claimant sees contrails and later observes clouds and rainfall thus deducing that the contrails caused the rain. This false inference is such because the approaching frontal system is usually preceded by sufficient moisture to allow persistent contrails to form, and when the front later passes, it causes rainfall. In my words, "Contrails don't cause weather, weather causes contrails."

The only possibility of a change in weather due to contrails is that they may increase cirrus coverage in an area of high air traffic, which is the subject of much research at this time. Contrails do not cause rainfall, and no material analysis has shown any unusual chemical or organic substance within contrails to support the weather modification claim.

-Solar Radiation Mitigation

The claim that contrails are actually a program to shield earth from excessive solar radiation has been made. Individuals making this claim appear to not understand that solar radiation is closely monitored by the radio and space community. Daily and sometimes hourly reports of solar activity are available which include all radiation spectrums from ultraviolet to cosmic radiation.

Earth does have natural protection from the majority of solar radiation from the Van Allen Belt and the ionosphere to natural ozone in the stratosphere. Ozone levels have decreased but remain within their historical range of variability and are available daily for any location on earth via satellite to anyone with an internet connection. Ultraviolet levels have been poorly monitored in the past but are also now available in realtime to anyone.

This empirical data easily shows that solar radiation fluctuates, is monitored, and is within normal variability, thus negating the necessity for any such protection program. Normal persistent contrails can and do provide cirrus clouds which can block some sunlight and UV radiation, but their global coverage is miniscule.

-Global Warming Mitigation

This claim entered the scene as 'chemtrail' proponents, formerly mostly within patriot/militia circles were joined by environmental activists in the wake of William Thomas' articles for the Environment News Service. These people are under the impression that human influence on earth's climate is at a crisis and must be mitigated. They are not aware or do not accept that satellite records over the last twenty years shows no warming trend of earth's atmosphere. No clear hypothesis based on meteorological facts has been proposed, though the claimants do make much of cloudiness they claim is due to contrails. As the data shows no warming trend, such a program is not necessary and is therefore illogical and based only on the false premise that 'global warming' exists.

-Alien Threat
This claim is proferred that either a sentient or simple alien lifeform poses a threat to humanity and must be protected against. There is no specific reference to any reality here, either that such a lifeform does exist, or that it could be harmful. Some impetus for this claim may have been gained when claims were made that a "Mars" metorite was found , which claim still remains unproven.

-Visual Obscuration
This claim refers to the idea that some activity needs to be hidden from the view of ground observers, thus the speculation that contrails are intentionally produced to hide the same activity. While a small amount of obscuration is possible under numerous contrails, viewers of contrail photography at the majority of websites shows generally that skies are not obscured enough to hide much of anything. Additionally, normal and natural cloud cover aplenty is available to obscure activity, which could also be accomplished under cover of darkness.

-Unspecified
Continually, there will be more speculation, the most recent I have heard is about a 'parasite'. I'll let you be the judge:

"Oh, on to the parasites. Joyce Riley was on the Art Bell Show 2 1/2 weeks ago. She spoke ofa parasite that is attached to mycoplasma found in the Gulf War
Syndrome-in egg form-that are now exiting the body of the vets with the syndrome(one out of his tongue)that seemed to have laid dormat for all these years. Well, mycoplasma has been found in chemtrails, sweeties. Her description of these tiny parasites whose whole front of their body is a mouth full of teeth sure does sound familiar.This is all getting to be very strange and very scary.
Sincerely-Jan Zickel Fair Oaks, California "

Jan is evidently not aware of the relative size difference between mycoplasma and parasites, and the fact that no mycoplasma has been found in any contrails- JR

[This work is in progress, with much more to come, please check back later - JR ]